TLDR;
- ETH continues to trade with low volatility this week despite BTC soaring ahead.
- Ethereum exchange reserves hit record lows, signaling strong investor accumulation.
- Pectra upgrade increased Ethereum’s Realized Cap by $3.8 billion recently.
- Analysts share reasons why Ethereum breakout may lead to $10,000
Despite its big brother Bitcoin (BTC) soaring above $110,000 in its latest rally to a new all-time high, Ethereum (ETH) has lagged behind, inching forward at a more measured pace.
Notably, for about a week now, ETH has been hovering in the $2,500–$2,600 range, but market dynamics are shifting fast. According to CoinMarketCap data, Ethereum’s 24-hour trading volume surged by 56%, reaching $37.13 billion. More impressively, ETH has climbed 61.91% over the past 30 days, underscoring renewed investor interest.
Ethereum Exchange Balances Plummet
One of the most telling indicators of this bullish momentum is the sharp decline in ETH exchange reserves. On Wednesday, data from crypto analytics platform Santiment revealed that ETH held on centralized exchanges hit a historic low—indicating reduced selling pressure and increased investor confidence. When investors pull ETH off exchanges and into private wallets, it often signals accumulation, a pattern that historically precedes major price rallies. Back in January 2024, when exchange reserves dropped to 8.04% of total supply, a similar price surge followed.
The ETH supply on exchanges hit its lowest level in history.
You simply love to see it. pic.twitter.com/UoFEWDjvOG
— The DeFi Investor 🔎 (@TheDeFinvestor) May 21, 2025
Analyst Joao wedson from CryptoQuant also highlighted that altcoins, including ETH, are “leaving Binance heavily”. The Binance Netflow Heatmap, which tracks altcoin movements, shows ETH outflows accelerating.
“This shows strong public interest in withdrawing these altcoins from the exchange, a clear signal of accumulation and confidence in the assets,” he noted.
Glassnode analysts added further bullish context, linking ETH’s strength to the recent Pectra upgrade. Since the upgrade, Ethereum’s Realized Cap, the total capital invested in the asset, rose from $240.8 billion on May 7 to $244.6 billion by May 19, reversing a three-month downtrend. This $3.8 billion increase in capital suggests strong investor conviction, especially as institutional players like BlackRock and Abraxas step in.
$10,000 Price Incoming?
From a technical standpoint, traders are watching closely. On Wednesday, chartist Trader Tardigrade identified a symmetrical triangle pattern in Ethereum’s price, a formation often leading to sharp breakouts in the direction of the prior trend. According to his analysis, if ETH breaks the $3,700–$3,800 resistance level, it could surge to as high as $21,000, mirroring Bitcoin’s similar 2020 triangle breakout that propelled it to $12,500 and beyond.
#Ethereum is forming a Symmetrical Triangle on the macro chart (W2) 🔥
The target is $21,000 if $ETH breaks the triangle at $3,700-$3,800 🚀 pic.twitter.com/27XSnyKfft— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) May 21, 2025
In parallel, popular YouTube channel Altcoin Daily predicted Ethereum could reach $10,000 by Q4 2025. Their thesis is based on macroeconomic shifts, including a potential second rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and improving U.S.-China trade relations, conditions that historically favor risk-on assets like crypto.
In the short term, Titan of Crypto pointed to Ethereum’s CME Futures chart, identifying two unfilled price gaps around $3,200. These gaps often get “filled” as price returns to those levels, a phenomenon well-documented in traditional markets and crypto alike. ETH’s failure to break the $2,850 resistance could soon reverse if these gaps are targeted, providing fuel for further upside.
At press time, ETH was trading at $2,649 reflecting a 4.2% surge in the past 24 hours.
