Key Highlights
- Average prediction market participants experienced greater financial losses compared to users of licensed sports betting platforms during the analysis window.
- Research from Citizens JMP Securities indicated that median returns for prediction market users reached negative 8 percent.
- Sports betting platform participants saw median losses of negative 5 percent during the identical period.
- High-volume participants who invested over $500,000 in prediction markets generated median gains of positive 2.6 percent.
- Low-balance prediction market participants experienced severe losses, with accounts under $100 recording negative 26.8 percent returns.
Participants in event-based trading platforms are experiencing greater financial losses than those using licensed sports wagering services, new transactional analysis reveals. Citizens JMP Securities documented that accounts with smaller balances on prediction platforms sustained more significant losses compared to equivalent sports betting participants. The research additionally identified that demographic trends show younger participants gravitating toward prediction platforms at accelerated rates relative to conventional wagering applications.
Financial Setbacks Intensify for Prediction Platform Users
Citizens JMP Securities examined transactional information from Juice Reel spanning July 2025 to mid-March 2026. Their findings revealed that typical prediction market participants experienced a median loss of 8% throughout this timeframe. Meanwhile, sports betting platform users saw median losses of 5% across the identical duration.
Jordan Bender, a research analyst with Citizens JMP, noted that participants with higher transaction volumes experienced superior performance. His analysis indicated that accounts exceeding $500,000 in trading activity produced median gains of 2.6%. Conversely, all participant segments beneath this level recorded negative outcomes, with those trading less than $100 experiencing losses of 26.8%.
The analysis benchmarked these results against legal sports wagering accounts throughout the same window. Results demonstrated that no sports betting segment reached profitability. Nevertheless, the highest-volume sportsbook category (over $500,000) recorded losses of just 0.6%, whereas the smallest accounts demonstrated losses of 29.3%.
Bender explained the performance gap by citing structural differences and participant makeup. His research emphasized that prediction platforms expose everyday traders directly to sophisticated professionals and liquidity providers. Conversely, sportsbooks handle risk through internal mechanisms and restrict access for profitable users.
Two experienced betting professionals participated in a Citizens JMP conference call recently. They explained that prediction platforms present clearer opportunities for generating profits because everyday participants supply market liquidity. The research documentation noted that professionals systematically position themselves opposite to less sophisticated trading activity.
Gaming Industry Leaders Minimize Concerns About Emerging Competition
Leadership teams from major gaming companies discussed the emergence of event-based trading platforms during their final 2025 quarterly financial presentations. Citizens JMP assembled these statements within their analysis. Corporate leaders predominantly dismissed suggestions that prediction platforms pose significant threats to established sportsbook income streams.
DraftKings Chief Executive Jason Robins stated that prediction platforms have not substantially expanded their existing customer base. Flutter Chief Executive Peter Jackson indicated his company has observed no meaningful customer migration. BetMGM Chief Executive Adam Greenblat projected potential revenue impact in the lower-to-middle single-digit percentage range.
Citizens JMP calculated the financial impact at approximately 5% using accessible information. The analysis suggested that customer crossover remains constrained currently. The research did, however, highlight emerging patterns in new user acquisition as a factor warranting attention.
Sensor Tower analytics referenced in the analysis revealed that 24% of Kalshi participants fall below age 25. Kalshi’s median user age sits at 31 years, whereas DraftKings and FanDuel register median ages approaching 35 years. The documentation noted that roughly 90% of DraftKings revenue originates from participants exceeding 30 years of age.
Application download patterns also showed distinct trajectories during the examination period. FanDuel experienced an 18% year-over-year download decrease, while DraftKings saw a 13% decline between September 2025 and February 2026. During this same interval, Kalshi accumulated 6.3 million downloads, based on Sensor Tower information included in the analysis.
